Blackjack Triple Down
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New to this forum - but joined based on this thread. Got the promotion info from the Sun and curious what the word was out there. I have confirmed the rules from the player's club people. They said you can triple (not quadruple) down on any hand from 6am Thursday until 6am on Friday. And it did seem like the max bet was $250 (and thus you can slide an extra $500 in for the 'triple down'.
Another bonus - they are having auditions for American's Top Model down the street at MGM Grand at 10am. It is tough to leave the tables, but for a nice break it could be worth it. Plus my guess is they will be hanging out tonight there.
I am not sure how crowded it will be - I tend to disagree that there will be a line for seats at 6am on a summer Thursday morning. Yes, I will be there, along with a crew. But there is still some volatility here. And that leads me to my question...
QUESTION: If one were to play the full 24 hours, perfect tripling strategy, 60 hands/hour, what are the chances of leaving down Friday morning? I believe it to be around 25%.
I'm no math wiz, but I believe you have to state the percentage of your backroll you are flat-betting for someone to answer the question. Edit: On second thought, no you don't. See the 'no math wiz' statement. Duh!
I'm no math wiz, but I believe you have to state the percentage of your backroll you are flat-betting for someone to answer the question. Edit: On second thought, no you don't. See the 'no math wiz' statement. Duh!
Correct, you don't. But there is a very real chance of losing, and losing very big. You should be concerned with your Risk of Ruin.This promotion is far from a sure thing - the edge is very small, and the variance is around 50% higher than regular blackjack, so the swings will be absolutely enormous; this may be what they're counting on.
This promo is really only for those with a very strong stomach, and a VERY large bankroll.I wouldn't object if someone wanted to run the numbers for N hands though. It might bring all the hype back to reality a little bit.
Blackjack Triple Dot
Assume you are flipping a coin with p=50.75% you win, p=49.25% you lose (a 1.5% player advantage).
stdev = sqrt (# hands * 50.75% * 49.25).
Assume 60 hands/hour for 24 hours (1,440 hands).
So stdev = 19, and expected wins is 731
Breakeven is 720 wins = 11 away from expected. 11/19 = .569 standard deviations.
A normal distribution will hit .569 standard deviations from mean 28.4% of the time, and so you can expect to be down 28.4% of the time by Friday at 6am.
Confirmation? Wizard?
I've played twelve of these so far and have won two. Since the player risks nothing, it's a good deal for those betting table minimum, but probably meaningless to the purple chip player at a $10 table. Come to think of it, it will mean a heck of a lot to the purple chip players and here's why: Be prepared for play to come to a grinding halt every hour on the hour as the players ask the same questions over and over and the floorperson painstakingly explains it over and over and over.Hands per hour will take a dive on the day of all days that you want them to increase. I went into this much detail in hopes that all who read this will have a heads up and will just go with the flow rather than having to ask questions upon seeing those white chips suddenly appear. The casino was dead at 11:00 this morning but that will soon change.
Good luck to everyone heading to Uncasville. I'll be right there with ya.
Assume large enough bankroll so no risk of ruin.
Assume you are flipping a coin with p=50.75% you win, p=49.25% you lose (a 1.5% player advantage).
stdev = sqrt (# hands * 50.75% * 49.25).
Assume 60 hands/hour for 24 hours (1,440 hands).
So stdev = 19, and expected wins is 731
Breakeven is 720 wins = 11 away from expected. 11/19 = .569 standard deviations.
A normal distribution will hit .569 standard deviations from mean 28.4% of the time, and so you can expect to be down 28.4% of the time by Friday at 6am.
Confirmation? Wizard?
Where is the variance accounted for? In regular blackjack, it's 1.3, in this game, it's about 1.9.
From qfit:
Assuming 1440 hands, with a win rate of 1.5%, stdev=1.4:
50% of the time you'll end between -15 and 60 units
75% of the time you'll end between -41 and 90 units
Let's see, for a $250 bet, betting full kelly would require a bankroll of about (K=BR*EV/VAR) $30k. But that leave a (lifetime) risk of ruin at 13.5%, which is a bit high for my taste!
Where is the variance accounted for? In regular blackjack, it's 1.3, in this game, it's about 1.9.
The variance is part of the standard deviation calculation.
Btw, what all of this says is we should be teaming up...
Blackjack Triple Download
Wednesday night fireworks are cancelled. Bummer.
The $500 limit is the limit on the 'triple down' portion of the bet. So, if you bet $700, you can double for $700, and then your triple is limited to $500 more.
This was the example in the email and seemed pretty clear. No clarity on what happens to the limit if there is a split involved, but that is a smaller issue anyway. Also no clarity on whether players will be limited to one hand - they might. She seemed pretty certain the promotion would last the full duration - though she would not swear to it of course.
So, there you go. The promotion is twice as good as most of us thought, and if you are going to maximize, be ready to flat bet $500.
Now, in return for this service I have provided the board, I would like to ask for a service from the Wizard (with whom I have never corresponded, but for whom, I'd just like to say, I have tremendous admiration). Wizard, I was grateful to have your table of exact MS triple down basic strategy and I have committed it to memory. Any chance you can provide a table of high low indices? Or, at the least, the indices on common triple down decisions. Or, at the least, the indices on the new triple downs, like 8 v. 6. I am going to have to play through some negative counts and I don't want to be betting an additional grand on 8 v. 6 if it isn't a good play.
Thanks.
The $500 limit is the limit on the 'triple down' portion of the bet. So, if you bet $700, you can double for $700, and then your triple is limited to $500 more.
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So, there you go. The promotion is twice as good as most of us thought [...]
If true this is pretty sick. I wish I had the bankroll to bet the max.
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